Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD, has welcomed publication of the first of three Health Service Capacity Review reports produced by the ESRI on behalf of the Department of Health. The report projects future demand for public acute hospitals in Ireland to 2040, indicating that a substantial increase in capacity will continue to be required to meet the demands of our growing and ageing population.
ESRI’s independent report sets out acute bed projections to 2040, with a range of 5,091 to 7,780 additional inpatient and day-patient beds required. It also projects an increase in ED attendances of between 333,000 and 444,000 by 2040 from a baseline of 1.6 million, and an increase of 950,000 to 1,298,000 outpatient department attendances from a baseline of 4.56 million.
In 2023, there were 5.3 million people in Ireland. This is expected to grow by 15 per cent to 6.1 million by 2040. Approximately 87,000 people were aged 85 years and over, projected to more than double by 2040 to 204,000 people. Older age groups tend to use healthcare services more frequently and for longer durations. Bed day rates for males aged 90 years and over are 8,250 per 1,000 population, while females are 6,203 per 1,000 population. This compares to adults under 49, for whom the rates are less than 500 per 1,000 population.
Minister Carroll MacNeill said: “I am grateful to the ESRI for this report, which highlights the capacity challenges we face in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population. This evidence base is crucial for future planning, ensuring we have the facilities to provide the best care to patients. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning.”
